Demons vs Bombers

Part two of 2025.

After a 15-day break following three games in 13 days, Essendon begins its second stint of 11 games, a period that promises to be season-defining, with a Gather Round clash against Melbourne.

The Bombers gained confidence from their strong performance against Port Adelaide and will look to carry that momentum into this contest against a Demons side still searching for its first win of the season.

Looking back.

Though the final margin didn’t fully reflect it, Essendon’s Round 18 loss to Melbourne at the MCG was one of its most disappointing performances of 2024.

The two biggest failures came in ball movement, both in attack and defence, and at stoppages.

In wet and slippery conditions, Melbourne defended ball movement far better, generating 13 shots on goal from chains starting in their front half. They scored 53 of their 84 points from this area, the third-most Essendon conceded in a game all season.

Their dominance was aided by their stoppage work. Despite the Bombers winning hitouts 43-27 (Gawn absent due to injury), Melbourne won clearances 44-32. The key difference came in winning ground ball pre clearance, where Melbourne dominated 37-15. This gave them control around stoppages, scoring 28 points from clearances compared to Essendon’s 14. Ultimately the margin at the final siren was 17 points.

Looking forward.

While Melbourne hasn’t yet hit the heights they expected this year, they still have too many weapons across the ground that can change the course of the game quickly. As always, it starts with ball-winning abilities.

With names like Gawn, Oliver, Viney, and Petracca, seeing Melbourne ranked 17th at clearance is one of the surprises of the year. This quartet has attended 85%, 73%, 65, and 57% of Melbourne’s centre bounces in 2025. Up until last year, they played a key role in keeping Melbourne ranked inside the top seven teams for stoppage differential since 2017. Just as surprising, though, is Essendon’s +7.7 differential, ranking 3rd to start the year.

Yes, it’s only early, but the signs are promising for Essendon’s midfield when it comes to winning the hard ball inside the contest. More importantly, they’re balancing that with their ability to move the ball from inside to outside efficiently and to make their way forward.

Getting dirty.

In 2024, Essendon ranked 13th in pre-clearance contested possession with a -2.22 differential and 16th in pre-clearance ground ball with a -3.78 differential. Both areas have seen a massive turnaround after three games, with a +9.3 differential in pre-clearance contested possession (currently ranked number one) and +4.3 in pre-clearance ground ball (ranked 3rd). Durham leads all Bombers midfielders in these two categories, but they’ll need to find a replacement for Caldwell for the next few weeks. He’s the second-highest ranked Bomber in these areas.

If Essendon can back up what has been a key strength so far, it will go a long way toward securing the four points.

Cashing in.

To date, Essendon is averaging just under 35 points per game from stoppages, just below the AFL average. But, like other areas of their game that I’ll get to later, they deserve more reward for their work.

The Bombers are converting over 28% of clearances into a shot at goal. Based on that strike rate, that would have been ranked number one in 2024. In Round 1 against Hawthorn, they kicked five goals but 10 behinds from clearance opportunities, and in Round 3, they managed only four goals from 11 shots. With better efficiency, they can exploit a clear Melbourne weakness in 2025.

Only Richmond this year is conceding more points from stoppage than Melbourne, allowing an average of 43 per game. Their biggest issue is centre bounce scores, conceding just over 20 points per game from that source.

Scoring directly from centre bounce isn’t a reliable source, the AFL average so far is 12 points, but it’s about more than just the scoreboard. Winning at centre bounce sets up field position, which can improve two key aspects of Essendon’s game: one that’s trending in the right direction and another that’s been a work in progress for far too long.

Cashing in again.

“In two of their first three games in 2025, Essendon recorded 16 and 17 shots at goal from turnovers. By comparison, they managed this feat only three times in 2024 and five times in 2023.”

- From my review of Essendon vs. Port Adelaide, Round 3.

Again, it’s a small sample size, but through three games, Essendon has averaged 14.3 shots at goal from intercepts, ranking 5th in the AFL. Only two teams, Gold Coast and Adelaide, are converting an intercept into a shot at a higher rate than Essendon’s 24.15%. Their current average of 51.04 points per game from intercepts is an improvement from 2024’s 45.3 but still leaves room for growth, ranking 7th in the competition.

Defending this score source is a major issue for Melbourne, can Essendon take full advantage?

The Demons are conceding over 52 points per game from failing to defend intercepts. Their backline is under constant pressure, struggling with both clearance losses and an inability to transition effectively from the defensive half. Almost 49 points per game are coming from possession chains starting in their defensive half, the 15th most conceded in the competition after four rounds.

Here’s more than enough motivation to pressure and tackle closer to goal, continue creating opportunities to win groundballs inside 50 (the 8th-best rate per inside-50 entry), and turn those chances into scoreboard impact.

While Essendon has improved in several key areas, the biggest issue remains what’s going the other way.

Concerns.

Scoring over 50 points per game from intercepts is wasted when conceding over 67 points in return, more than 20 points per game above the AFL average. Only the Eagles are conceding more than the Bombers to this point of the season.

Much of this damage is stemming from a persistent inability to disrupt the opposition’s ball movement once they have cleared the congestion. Too often, teams have been able to find an uncontested mark to help dictate terms at their preferred tempo.

After three rounds, the Bombers are conceding over 90 uncontested marks outside their defensive 50, the most of all teams and a significant increase from the 72.2 they allowed on average last season.

The obvious challenge this week will be preventing Melbourne from regularly finding a marking outlet. This will provide critical support to the defenders, who until the second quarter against Port Adelaide, had struggled to contain opposition inside-50 entries from translating to scores.

I’d love to erase the round 2 performance against Adelaide from memory forever, and I’m sure the defenders feel the same.

Across the opening eight quarters of the season, Essendon conceded a shot at goal per opposition entry at an alarming 62.8%, something no supporter would want to see repeated. Thankfully, improvements further up the ground, leading to more “dirty ball” for Port Adelaide, combined with better positioning from the defensive line, helped reduce Port’s efficiency from 67% in the first quarter to 43.8% over the final three quarters.

Changing the formula.

Melbourne, like Essendon, looks to have reworked their transition game with ball in hand. They’ve moved away from the old method of kicking long to contests, instead opting to link up by hand and generate more run and carry. It’s a shift that could actually benefit Essendon, but only if they bring the same intensity and discipline they showed against Port Adelaide.

So far, just 57% of Melbourne’s disposals have been kicks, the 10th lowest rate among all teams (Essendon sits at 56.2%). This marks a considerable difference from Melbourne’s 61.5% in 2024. Theoretically, the increased use of handballs provides Essendon with more opportunities to close space, force turnovers, and keep the game in congestion for longer, rather than allowing Melbourne to “get to the outside.”

That should align with their strengths, at least if the early contested possession numbers hold. The Bombers currently have a +17 differential, ranked 2nd while Melbourne sits at -8, ranked 13th However, this now sees Essendon stepping into an area of the game that has traditionally been Melbourne’s stronghold.

Last year was the first time since 2015 that Melbourne recorded less than a +4 contested possession differential, and their ranking in this metric dropped outside the top six for the first time since 2019. Since 2018, Melbourne has been the number one ranked team in this area four times, amassing a total differential of +64.8.

I talked up Essendon’s contested work after the Port Adelaide game, but if this “new look” Bombers outfit wants to assert itself in 2025, it’ll need to meet this challenge head-on.

I’ve written about what the game may look like and how Melbourne has shifted their approach to start the year, but both the coaching staff and players need to be aware, ready, and flexible if or when Melbourne changes their method, as Essendon has shown vulnerabilities to the kick/mark game that both Hawthorn and Adelaide exploited in their wins.

Short sharp notes.

Essendon is averaging 55 inside-50 entries per game, the 6th most in the competition. Teams above them in this metric have collectively lost just two games from 19 so far this year.

Despite averaging 55 entries into the front zone, the Bombers are only taking a mark in there just over 15% of the time, ranked 16th.

Melbourne ranks 2nd for intercepts per game.

After averaging 77.4 uncontested marks last year, Essendon is averaging 66.1 after three games this season.

Refreshed.

Essendon’s early-season bye provided a crucial opportunity to pause, evaluate what’s working, address areas needing attention, and refine their approach for the challenges ahead.

Meanwhile, Melbourne, still searching for their first victory, will be determined to respond and experience the satisfaction Essendon enjoyed last time out.

For the Bombers, every game matters, and this week is no exception.

Following a demanding preseason and two uneven performances to open the year, Essendon finally secured a win, gaining both the nourishment and confidence needed to carry momentum into this week.

Go Bombers !