For Essendon, simply taking the four points and moving on isn't an option. There's too much for this team to learn week by week to easily dismiss a performance. The other 17 teams certainly aren't doing so.
So, in this assessment, I'll address both the positives and negatives from my perspective.
The good lies in the continuous improvement in a part of the game that is sustainable in the long term. This improvement is crucial for competing against and defeating highly rated teams, which in turn leads to deservedly making finals and becoming legitimate contenders, unlike recent history.
However, the bad is just as critical, because if it persists, it will undo all the progress made and emphasize the importance of the positives even more in securing victories.
"Improvement today, success tomorrow."
Positive.
In previous posts, I've written about time spent in the forward half and the front-half game, illustrating how it reflects a team's ability to maintain pressure on the opposition by keeping the ball in their attacking zone.
Teams with a high time in the forward half typically have more control over the game, thus creating more scoring opportunities as they constantly threaten their opponent's goal.
The two top-ranked teams of 2023 for time in the forward half and time in the forward half differential were Port Adelaide and Melbourne. Both of these teams ranked in the top two for inside 50s and the top four for average shots at goal per game.
These are two areas that Essendon should constantly strive to improve upon in 2024 and beyond.
But, to start with, all of that relies on one key aspect that initially provides you with the territory.
Without this, you cannot establish the front half or time in the forward half to begin with: clearance.
If you can gain possession of the ball first and distribute it to your teammates at stoppages through clearance, then you're off to the best start.
You begin with the ball, dictate the initial actions, and set up the field to capitalise on that advantage.
This feeds into your front half game, allowing you to dictate the opposition's actions in their attempt to regain possession.
I'm pleased to report that this aspect of the game is evolving and improving, proving to be a major factor in Essendon's victory against the West Coast Eagles with 16 shots at goal originating from the front half of the ground, covering repeat entries generated by intercept and tackling pressure.
The previous week, there was significant discussion about Essendon's lack of tackling inside the forward 50, and rightfully so, as only two tackles were recorded in the game. Unfortunately, this trend persisted through the first quarter and a half of the subsequent match. However, in just four minutes towards the end of the second quarter, the four tackles laid by the Bombers exceeded the total tackles made in the previous six and a half quarters in that area.
By the end of the game, Essendon had made 14 of its 67 tackles in that zone.
Considering that 23 shots on goal were taken by the Bombers with almost 70% originating from that area of the ground, it underscores the true effectiveness of the clearance game and the front half pressure it generated in influencing the result.
For the fourth consecutive week the Bombers have scored 42 or more points from intercepts, with the average during this period surpassing 48 points.
Moreover, over 57% of the score in that timeframe originates from intercepts, representing an increase from the season average of just over 53%.
This performance would currently rank 6th for score source percentages in the competition.
“As the outer shell cracks, the inner layers expose their weaknesses."
Negative.
Here's the crux of the issue in this game, and truthfully, it's a problem that has persisted throughout the season.
I have a hunch about how to address it, but unfortunately, the solution isn't immediately accessible. Moreover, once it becomes available, it will require time to integrate with the existing setup.
In 2024, the Eagles' efficiency inside 50 resulted in a shot on goal 48.2% of the time they entered the area. Against Essendon, this figure skyrocketed to 54%, a rate that would currently rank clear number one in the AFL.
This presents a significant challenge for Essendon.
After eight games, opponents are averaging a shot at goal over 50% of the time they penetrate Essendon's defensive 50, placing the team in the bottom four alongside Richmond, West Coast Eagles, and North Melbourne.
No other teams have a rate worse than 50%.
Simply put, this is subpar.
The AFL average thus far is 46.7%, and only twice this year has Essendon managed to hold opponents below this average: 44% against Adelaide and 46% against the Western Bulldogs.
The Bombers were almost able to hold the Eagles to their season average of 23 shots at goal as this week they managed to have 24, unfortunately they had 12 shots from within 30 metres and five from inside 20 metres all from angles no wider than 60 degrees.
In comparison, Essendon managed 11 shots within 30 metres and only three within 20 metres of goal.
The primary solution? Individuals.
I typically prefer to attribute team issues to setup or system rather than solely to individuals for improvement or decline. However, in this case, I'm compelled to focus on who's missing and the potential impact they could have on the team dynamic.
Outside of match simulations and practice matches, McKay, Reid, and Ridley have only played together for just over 20 minutes out of 640 minutes of the season, with Ridley not yet participating in those numbers.
Throughout preseason, there was eager anticipation for these three players to unite in the back half, operating as a cohesive unit within the team.
This partnership was expected to positively affect their teammates' performance, allowing them to play roles that better suited their strengths rather than filling in for Reid and Ridley.
Laverde is being asked to shoulder the responsibility as a second key defender behind McKay.
His stature and physical attributes make him ill-suited for this key role of one on one contests and general defensive play.
He will thrive in a set up where he can match up against less formidable forwards who are targeted less from the opposition and in a more confined space.
Redman has struggled to replicate his previous form from past seasons and is better suited to posing offensive challenges to the opposition rather than grappling with defensive responsibilities.
Duursma has been burdened with significant defensive duties too close to the opponents goal which detracts from his ability to contribute in possession chains moving forward.
These examples highlight the domino effect of Ridley and Reid's absence from the lineup.
Once the entire group is back on the field and at full fitness, they will need time to gel, understand each other's tendencies, provide cover for weaknesses, and complement each other's strengths effectively.
"Questions linger, answers evade”
Puzzling.
Honestly, I'm at a loss for answers to these questions; they left me puzzled about the who, how, and why, and seemed quite unusual in the coverage.
Throughout the game, there were 104 ruck contests, with 78 occurring outside of the centre bounce, including 11 within Essendon's defensive 50. Despite this, McKay was tasked with rucking in those stoppages instead of the dedicated ruckman, Goldstein, or his relief ruckman, Wright.
Considering that West Coast's third-string ruckman, Darling, participated in the majority of these contests, I would have preferred to see Essendon's primary or secondary ruckmen assert themselves in those situations.
The presence of a "loose man" on each team, as mentioned in commentary and observed during the game, left me questioning which coach made that decision and, ultimately, why.
While I can comprehend if it was part of Simpson's pre-planning, I am genuinely unsure why Scott would allow it to persist for so long.
At times, Essendon managed to cope with this strategy, but it became problematic on occasions when players were moving the ball forward. Instead of utilising their numerical advantage at the source to move to goal, they often ended the chain by kicking long to outnumbered teammates, leaving them with no realistic chance of winning possession.
As the game progressed, this issue seemed to diminish, but in my opinion, it still played a role in why the match remained closely contested between the two teams for too long.
"Change beckons, urging a return to the familiar."
Ball movement.
While the front half game shows promising development for 2024, the once reliable ball movement game continues to struggle, most likely necessitating a reboot to regain momentum.
In 2023, the Bombers ranked 16th for the percentage of their rebounds exiting defensive 50 wide and towards the boundaries instead of through the corridor, whereas this year, they hold the top rank in this aspect.
This shift likely aimed to bolster defensive integrity although it appears to have impacted the ball movement forward and subsequent success.
In two of the past three seasons, Essendon has ranked third and second for scores originating from the defensive half, with 2022 being the only year below the AFL average.
This trend continued this week against the Eagles who rank 18th in stopping possession chains originating in the opposition's defensive third and transitioning into their attacking third.
They have ranked in the bottom four for opposition scores from this source over the past three seasons.
In this match, Essendon initiated 61 possession chains from behind the halfway line, with only 18 entering the forward 50, and four of those categorised as "shallow entries" rather than deep ones.
While the conversion rate from this zone was low, the pleasing aspect is that four resulted in goals.
However, it's important to note that while I prefer scoring sources to originate in the front half off the back of territory, as explained earlier, as the season progresses and matches against stronger teams loom, relying solely on the clearance and territory game won't suffice.
"Progress demands consistency in learning, adapting, and evolving."
The four points.
Indeed, securing the four points is a significant achievement, as the team continues to bond through interstate travel and increased time on the field together.
It's imperative to analyse both the positives and negatives from this performance and carry these lessons forward into the coming weeks.
By consistently working on and implementing strategies for long term success, the team demonstrates its commitment to growth and development.
As bigger challenges lie ahead, the team's willingness to learn, evolve, and progress becomes increasingly crucial.
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