Matchups
Round 20 – St Kilda
This preview focuses on our Round 20 clash with St. Kilda, analysing how both teams stack up on paper. While matchups are fluid during games, this exercise should give a general idea of team selection, helping to anticipate key matchups and possible positional twists.
*To keep things simple, ONE Essendon player is matched to ONE opposition player. Therefore, this is only meant as a guide and not to be taken as gospel.
TEAM SELECTION
In: Dyson Heppell, Darcy Parish, Peter Wright
Out: Jake Kelly (injured), Matt Guelfi (injured), Todd Goldstein (omitted)
(refer to this link for an explanation of role nicknames: https://thebombersblog.wixsite.com/thebombersblog/post/determining-our-current-best-team )
DEFENCE
Full-Back Line:
RIDLEY(interceptor)
Sharman(2nd full-forward)
McKAY(anchor)
Caminiti(leading forward)
McGRATH(lockdown)
Higgins(crumber)
Half-Back Line:
MARTIN(creator)
Wood(linker)
LAVERDE(zoner)
Membrey(athlete)
REDMAN(general)
Owens(dynamo)
St Kilda possess a similar forward line structure to us: medium talls galore. Boasting four in the form of Cooper Sharman, Mason Wood, Tim Membrey, and Mitch Owens, it can be seen why Dyson Heppell was brought in. Medium talls are always tricky customers with their ability to impact in the air and on the ground, but in my opinion, when you name too many, you become good at neither. This is why it sometimes feels like our talls cannot take a contested mark as well as our smalls not being able to rove a pack. Still, when these hybrids get off the chain and get their tail up, their deficiencies are well-masked by increased confidence and swagger. We just have to look at Jake Stringer over the years to understand that. Wood and Membrey, in particular, were on fire last week having 12 shots at goal between them. They have no doubt recalled Caminiti to try and exploit this again, stretching our backline in hope of Wood and Membrey getting favourable matchups. Regarding their smalls, I expect Andrew McGrath to go straight to Jack Higgins, especially in the absence of Jake Kelly. While we all admire McGrath’s lockdown ability, this defensive role means an offensive void is left across half-back. Martin and Redman will need to fill it, especially Redman who had a great game last week against the Crows. I expect him to continue this form and hopefully rack up ~25disposal for a second straight week.
MIDFIELD
Centre Line:
DUURSMA(two-way)
Hill(two-way)
DURHAM(point of difference)
Steele(accumulator)
JONES(two-way)
Byrnes(two-way)
Followers:
DRAPER(ruck)
Marshall(ruck)
PARISH(accumulator)
Jones(point of difference)
MERRETT (architect)
Sinclair(architect)
Besides Jack Steele, the Saints midfield is extremely quick. Even their ruckman, Rowan Marshall, is mobile and likes to get involved in possession chains. It means we might see centre bounce attendances from some zippy forwards. While these are typically Stringer and Shiel, it may even open the door for Jade Gresham just to ensure we are not getting burnt on the outside. Enough about the outside though, finally we have regained some heavy-duty artillery on the inside. This of course comes in the form of Darcy Parish, our consensus clearance beast. Since his injury, we have been extremely reliant on Jye Caldwell to do the majority of grunt work, and while he has done an admirable job, our early season stoppage dominance has faded. This was painfully obvious last week when he was subbed off and Adelaide dominated clearance and territory for the remaining minutes of the game. With Parish and Caldwell on the inside, and Merrett and Durham on the outside, we possess a much greater midfield balance. Injections from Shiel, Stringer, and perhaps even Gresham will also ensure some x-factor and unpredictability remains in our midfield rotations.
FORWARDS
Half-Forward Line:
STRINGER(dynamo)
Webster(lockdown)
CADDY(athlete)
Battle(zoner)
SHIEL(linker)
W-Milera(creator)
Full-Forward Line:
GRESHAM(crumber)
Stocker(general)
WRIGHT(leading forward)
Howard(anchor)
LANGFORD(2nd full-forward)
Wilkie(interceptor)
He’s back! Two-metre, seven-seater, whatever you call him … it doesn’t matter. Peter Wright has returned. While most of us could see his recent form issues, the fact we decided to pull the pin when we were playing in perfect conditions under the roof of Marvel Stadium was still a perplexing decision. Thankfully he’s back and we can ditch that dodgy two-ruck system. His inclusion is not the only big selection new, however, with the loss of Guelfi a critical structural loss despite only being a small forward. As we have not elected to replace him with a like-for-like player, some restructuring has to go on to satisfy the positional framework. In my opinion, Parish will slot straight into the middle and one unlucky midfielder will be ‘relegated’ to the half-forward line. The most likely option is Shiel given it was the role he played last year before injury struck. With Shiel shuffled to that high half-forward role, it means Gresham can play deeper as a genuine crumber while Jye Menzie remains as a dedicated pressure forward. With this positional change in mind, a good game from Gresham won’t be how many disposals and inside 50s he registers, but simply how many goals he is involved in, either kicking them himself or assisting a teammate. Finally, Nik Cox had a breakout game last week, although it is still hard to get a read on the role he will play week-to-week. Let’s hope wherever he is stationed, he executes it well again.
INTERCHANGE
Versatile Defenders:
HEPPELL(general)
Bonner(creator)
Complementary Midfielders:
CALDWELL(accumulator)
Clark (architect)
Pressure Forwards:
MENZIE(linker)
Butler(linker)
Utilities:
COX(two-way/2nd full-forward)
Wilson(linker/two-way)
Likely Substitutes:
PERKINS(point of difference)
Garcia (accumulator)
VERDICT
I seem to have laid down a curse on this already luckless Essendon side as we are zero from two since the inception of these matchup articles. Surely it has to change … right? Anyway, if it isn’t to change, we will probably be able to pinpoint it to a few of the same reasons that have plagued us over the last month. The standout for me is a lack of genuine leg speed across the entire field. Starting with defence, we look very tall (albeit out of necessity due to specific matchups), but it means we are prone to exhibiting a VFL-standard of panic when it comes to dealing with ground balls. I could not believe the amount of turnovers we conceded last week in our defensive half. Let’s hope the steadying head of Heppell can ease the pressure off our immature back six. Moving on to the midfield, it’s no secret our tall wingers in Jones and Cox can certainly be volatile in their effectiveness. Sometimes they look like a positional masterstroke, other times they look like a fish out of water. Our ‘linkers’ (this week Shiel and Menzie) will need to ensure they are ready to play a more sacrificial role and provide defensive cover for those tall wingers. Our forward line should at least have some zip with Wright more mobile than Goldstein and Shiel providing spark. I would rather see Nick Hind or Alwyn Davey Jnr in the team instead of Menzie, but we cannot have everything our way all the time.
Let’s hope we get a win this week, otherwise I might seriously have to contemplate stopping these blog posts for the sake of our season.
As always,
Go Bombers!
TIP: Essendon by 6 points.
James Youil (13-year Essendon Member)
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