First I'll finish off 2022.
3 major changes to end 2022.
In August David Barham takes over as President and almost 2 months later arrives Brad Scott as senior coach and in late November Craig Vozzo is appointed CEO.
Three desperately needed figures all with the experience and expertise in football to help steer a ship that had seemed rudderless and then ultimately shipwrecked.
Barham with over 25 years in the AFL industry, the last 7 as a Director of the club.
Craig Vozzo who was General Manager of one of the most successful clubs in the competition in The West Coast Eagles and part of their Premiership Year of 2018, having been there since 2013 and then Brad Scott, 2 time premiership player at Brisbane who then started the move into coaching by being assistant coach at Collingwood alongside Mick Malthouse before becoming senior coach at North Melbourne for nearly 10 years.
Brad had recently worked as General Manager with the AFL.
These 3 would get straight into work to help shape the future of the football club.
Thankfully 2022 was over and a new chapter could now be written.
Now for 2023.
On field.
There were ups and downs on field for Essendon in 2023.
The overall difference in wins and losses is easy to see.
The start to the season with wins against top 5 teams in GWS, Melbourne and Carlton plus the 2 close losses against finalist Port Adelaide showed glimpses of the team's capabilities and what Brad Scott can bring to this list.
Add to that, Essendon was sitting 5th on the ladder after round 17 and you can see the improvement just from that.
But there was still unfortunately familiar feelings in games to past performances, what I would call a "false dawn" and those would then become reality checks the longer the year went on and finally a true perspective was proven.
A perspective that hopefully drives Essendon into the beyond to continue to improve.
Read on as I talk about the good areas, bad areas and the areas that may seem good but are actually bad and areas that may seem bad but are actually good.
Defeating Melbourne in Round 5 was the highlight of the year in all round performance, on field by the players and upstairs by the coaches.
The coaches instructing both rucks, Draper and Phillips to work Grundy over up and back of the ground and force him to defend (Gawn didn't play) and the planned ball use in retaining possession from kicks didn't allow Melbourne to play their turnover and intercept game.
Then the players work rate in getting from contest to contest and winning post clearance contests.
That's leaving the area from a stoppage and ultimately outnumbering your opponent at the next contest with work rate, an area that Melbourne sat top 5 in for 3 years, yet Essendon would win that by 20.
Outstanding.
Click on the link for footage of the press conference from Simon Goodwin.
A week before the Melbourne win was the win against GWS.
The records will show a 13 point win against the Preliminary finalist, but that doesn't reflect the domination from set up and then system.
GWS would go on to be the best ball movement team in the competition by finals round.
That's winning the ball from defensive half to going inside 50 and then converting a score.
Not this time though.
53 defensive chains for GWS and only 9 going inside forward 50 for a total of 1 point.
Conversely, Essendon was able to score 30 points more from intercepting those GWS chains.
This is an example of not being caught up in or defined by the final score, not at the stage that Essendon is currently at.
When you add the opposition 9 inside 50s from 53 opportunities and then you have 19 more contested possessions with 61 inside 50 entries and score 59% of the time you go inside 50, your average winning margin would be more than 36 points.
Thats process over outcome.
The other 2 games that impressed were against Carlton and Adelaide, both games though only in parts.
This may be surprising to some but the most impressive quarter against Carlton in round 13 for mine wasn't the 3rd quarter, yes, Essendon kicked 7 goals to 2 in that quarter and destroyed them at clearance with 4 goals from turnovers & centre clearance domination.
But for me it was actually the 1st quarter that set the tone.
23 tackles of 64 in the 1st quarter.
19 tackles inside 50 for the game.
12 in the 1st quarter.
61 contested possessions of 112 also in the 1st quarter.
Here's an example of the hunt in the 1st quarter in order to set up a foundation for the win.
for the fantastic footage he constantly provides.
Now the first half against Adelaide in Round 17 was along the same lines as Round 13.
It rubber stamps the potential of this list to not only be capable of matching teams inside the contest but also be damaging from it.
Ball in hand has, and hopefully will continue to be, Essendon's A" game.
To half time, the ball spent 71% inside the Essendon forward half. Factors to that are keeping it in the area and not letting it rebound efficiently and the main one is winning the ball to begin with and getting it moving forward.
Moving it forward is reliant of clearance.
Up to half time it was 23 clearances to 20 and 73 contested possessions in the front half.
Thats 73 of 154, 154 from the entire 4 quarters, all over the ground.
When the game was on the line, the heat was on. 13 more groundball gets (contested possession won at ground level) to half time proves to me it's a capability this list has.
All this sets up 40 inside 50s and 21 shots at goal to half time. Now this isn't against a team that is ranked 16th, 17th or 18th in groundball differential over the year (by the way, Essendon is ranked 17th in this category for 2023) it's against a team who is top 10 in this area, top 2 in contested possessions overall for the year and top 4 in the amount of possessions won that are contested (again Essendon is ranked 17th in this area for 2023)
It can be done.
Unfortunately, it got ugly from round 17, only winning 2 out of the next 7 matches, against 17th and 18th. I'll get back to that soon.
The performances against GWS, Melbourne and the 2 quarters against Carlton (1st quarter and 3rd quarter) and Adelaide were standouts for me, mainly because of the players performances on the day.
Major credit also to round 6, Anzac Day against Collingwood.
This for mine was most impressive because of upstairs, the coaches box.
Unfortunately the result didn't fall Essendon's way, but the ability to set the game up to take away Collingwoods strengths in generating turnovers between the arcs (the 50 metre lines) and not be able to score from them and put the brakes on their defensive 50 transition chains for 3 quarters was telling in having a 28 point lead at 3 quarter time.
Next is the return game against Port Adelaide in round 16, a week before the Adelaide performance and obviously a factor in driving the team to motivation against the Crows.
Unfortunately we know how the Port Adelaide game ended.
In round 8 against Port Adelaide, the record will show Essendon lost by 5 points with an opportunity to draw the game with less than a minute to go.
But realistically on these metrics, this is a game Port Adelaide would win by 8 plus goals.
+18 inside 50s, +12 shots at goal, +17 stoppage clearances, +12 intercepts, +6 marks inside 50, +7 tackles inside 50 and +17 contested possessions.
I'm going to speak a lot about process versus outcome in these posts, this is an example.
In round 16 against Port Adelaide, the records will show a 4 point loss, now compare the process involved against round 8.
Port Adelaide had +5 inside 50s, -2 shots at goal, -4 stoppage clearances, -3 intercepts, -3 marks inside 50, +5 tackles inside 50 and -19 contested possessions.
Two very similar outcomes in the record books, two completely different processes involved.
Unfortunately there were false dawns also, reality checks that for mine were always hovering, waiting to appear.
How good was it to beat the old enemy in Hawthorn in round 1 by 59 points !
Seeing Walla charge onto the ground to the cheering crowd and kick a goal in his return game.
How about finally breaking the losing run to Richmond in Dreamtime with Durham winning it virtually on the siren !
Add to those, the "cough" rivalry with North Melbourne and the round 12 D'Ambrosio goal to take the lead late in the game !
All key wins at the time.
Four points is four points at the end of day game, but is it long term sustainable to play the way you do consistently, especially against better opponents and in games that really matter, finals.
Round 1 is always a "free hit"
You don't really have any intel on your opponent and so you really go out there to do what you've been training and practicing in the off season and see how it measures up against them and theirs.
Against Hawthorn there's a total of 255 marks by both teams, the highest for the round.
80 tackles in total, equal lowest for the round.
Lowest percentage of possessions contested for the round.
That tells you it's an uncontested and open game. Both teams not having much intel on each went and played the way they wanted to.
But like I said, it's round 1
Rounds 2, Gold Coast, 3 St Kilda and 4 GWS go better in being more long term sustainable.
Then from rounds 5 to 9 Essendon comes up against teams either strong from 2022 or have started 2023 very strong in Melbourne, Collingwood, Geelong, Port Adelaide and Brisbane. Geelong off a 5 day turn around and then back to back interstate travels.
The Port Adelaide and Brisbane games show that Essendon is not a consistently strong contest team, that's ok as these 2 teams will go on to being ranked 2nd and 3rd at the highest percentage of possessions won at contest.
41.1% and 40.6%.
As reference, Essendon finishes at 35.7%, ranked 17th.
What also shows up in those games is the reliance on "flooding back" and "parking the bus" in the defensive half and in defensive 50.
Through those 2 rounds Essendon goes -49 on inside 50s and can only generate 59 and 58 intercepts from those 2 teams compared to 71 and 73 from Port Adelaide and Brisbane.
Round 10 Essendon finally breaks the Dreamtime drought against Richmond.
Now this game looks completely different to anything played so far.
805 disposals in total, 523 uncontested and 167 intercepts in total with Essendon taking 143 marks outside of the forward 50.
This game I flip flop on in performance in all honesty.
This is a horrendous game style going forward.
It's the complete opposite to what we'll see be competitive against better teams and in finals.
But...I understand the theory from the coaches behind it.
It's a game style to beat Richmond, finally.
For far too long Essendon has tried to beat Richmond playing Richmond's "style"
High transition, fast, chaotic football.
As we know that hasn't been successful.
Richmond loved the ball in motion, in the air or on the ground, they loved taking it off their opposition and having them out of position and scoring via turnover.
This game was kept uncontested so Richmond couldn't generate chaos.
So i have to massive praise to upstairs for formulating something different that absolutely worked, even if Durham doesn't win the game.
So the GWS, Melbourne, Carlton and Adelaide wins show the potential of the team and the losses to Geelong in round 18 and GWS in round 23 show how much consistency is still required to compete week in.
But for mine, the game against Sydney in round 20 shows the most true to form of Essendon in 2023.
Now for 2 or 3 years Essendon's weapon, its asset, is ball movement.
Thats having the ball and moving it to inside 50 efficiently and then putting it on the scoreboard.
Its a fantastic asset to have in this day and age. Yes, there were issues during the year, namely against The Bulldogs in round 19, the team may have lost the GPS on that night.
To be ranked 6th for marks per inside 50 and 8th in goals per inside 50, scoring shots per inside 50 and shots at goal per inside 50 is a great start.
When the game is on Essendon's terms, it works, when it goes inside 50, it goes on the scoreboard.
The issue is when it's not on the right terms, when the opposition has the ball, this has been an issue for years.
Round 20 versus Sydney shows it and it becomes more pronounced the following week against West Coast.
Up until the Sydney game Essendon would allow on average their opponents 224.9 uncontested possessions a game, the 5th most at the time.
Sydney would average 215.8 uncontested, possessions up to the same point, ranked 11th.
This time Sydney had 258, that would have them ranked 1st by 11 more than the 2nd ranked team.
Essendon would be ranked the worst.
17 more than the next worst.
To the same stage, Sydney would only average 75.8 uncontested marks a game, the 4th least.
Essendon would allow 88.6 a game, the 4th most.
But in this game, Essendon gave up 93.
93 uncontested marks would have had Sydney number 2 for the most on average, interestingly, only behind Ess at 93.8.
Outside of forward 50, Essendon applied 42 tackles with a season average of 45.8 to that date.
The Swans opponents would average 49 against them.
Sydney would average 5.8 disposals per opposition tackle, though this time they were allowed to go at 7.8 disposals per tackle.
Essendon usually tackles at 6.5, ranked 16th.
Sydney went at 79% disposal efficiency.
79% would be ranked number 1 in 2023 & +4% on number 2.
They usually go at 72.6%.
Essendon would let their opposition go at 73.5% on average.
All this yet the records will show Essendon only losing by 2 points.
Process over outcome.
I say "ALLOW" a lot and I stand by it.
Essendon should have a major say in disturbing and interfering with the oppositions ball movement, they don't do it well enough or consistently enough.
That's why you get results which can look inconsistent and ugly at different times, such as against the West Coast Eagles in round 21.
Click the link to watch a clip of Brad Scott's after match press conference against the Eagles and his reaction to the question on whether the issue is ball movement or, something else, in this case, defending ball movement.
Essendon is at a stage of still setting a solid and consistent foundation week to week and Brad Scott has only had a say in the design for less than 12 months by the time the season of 2023 ends.
He got a good look at the age group from 20 to 26 with 4 players of that group playing every game and another 7 playing at least 16 games.
New draftee Alwyn Davey got his first taste of senior football early and then spent time honing his craft and game at VFL level while fellow draftee Elijah Tsatas recovered from knee injury early in the year and then made his debut late in the season.
Brad was able to get prime time midfield minutes into Ben Hobbs and Archie Perkins and forward Jye Menzie played 21 games after having only 1 full pre season.
Nic Martin 22 years played every game and got major billing on the wing opposite Sam Durham also 22 who played all bar one game.
Jye Caldwell played the most games in a season he's ever played with 21 games and having the opportunity to play alongside Ben Hobbs in the midfield.
In fact in round 22 Essendon had 4 players against North Melbourne aged under 22 years that had between 31% to 62% centre bounce attendances.
No team in 2023 had 4 players under 22 years of age have at least 31% attendance at centre bounce.
Unfortunately for Brad, there were questions on some players that he couldn't get an answer on because of injury.
Harrison Jones didn't play another game after round 5.
Nik Cox didn't play his first senior game until round 19 and Zach Reid failed to overcome a preseason injury and wouldn't play a game in the seniors.
There were also games missed through injury to key experienced players of Peter Wright, Will Setterfield, Dylan Shiel, Sam Draper, Jake Stringer, Jordan Ridley and Darcy Parish for a total of 63 games missed.
No doubt Brad would like to see more of a mix of those experienced players together with the young players coming through and players with question marks having a say on field.
Then came the trade and draft periods, this showing the "draw factor" that Brad Scott has as a coach, leader and as a person and the turn around off field in being able to entice names via free agency, but first, the "outs"
Massimo D'ambrosio traded
Alastair Lord delisted
Cian McBride delisted
Anthony McDonald Tipungwuti retired
Rhett Montgomerie delisted
Anthony Munkara delisted
Andrew Philips retired
Will Snelling delisted
James Stewart delisted
Patrick Voss delisted
Brandon Zerk Thatcher traded
Ins
At the trade table Essendon effectively brings in 4 starting players and pick 35, 61 and a future 4th round pick of Collingwoods and traded all that for Zerk Thatcher, D'Ambrosio, pick 52, 73 and future 3rd and 4th round picks.
The 4 experienced players are Ben McKay, Jade Gresham, Xavier Duursma and Todd Goldstein.
Players who have played 71, 136, 73 and 315 games respectively.
I'll get to their assets and how that will work with Essendon in another post soon.
At the draft Essendon uses pick 10 on Nate Caddy, pick 39 on Luamon Lual, pick 54 on Archie Roberts and at the rookie draft picks Vigo Visentini
The 4 starting will fit in perfectly into the line up. A key backman, a high half forward, an outside runner and a reliable experienced ruck are all areas that needed to be filled and the flow effect that will have on teammates, depth and on the overall structure will be exciting to see.
Caddy looks a ready made player going forward, a player who is built for the big stage of 70,000 plus marquee games and most importantly finals games.
His draft mates have been selected for the future for roles that are attainable to them.
There's scope for them to improve in the system, a system that will continue to improve with the appointments of David Rath and Doctor Ben Robbins.
Robbins has been brought in as head of psychology and well-being with his expertise and history being in the psychological wellbeing of professional athletes in mental health and building relationships.
Rath will be in the position of coaching, innovation and game strategy.
This is a role he has experience in after being at Hawthorn through their recent dominance and as head of coaching and innovation at the AFL.
This is a role I am really looking forward to seeing.
Even though Robbins role may not be as easily measurable with numbers for us on the outside, I am sure the benefits internally on the players will be enormous.
After all that has been of 2023, the page has turned and now we look towards 2024.
I for one am absolutely excited of what can be.
BRING ON 2024 !!
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