Hawks vs Bombers Preview

Hello 2025. Take two.

After months of buildup and a false start due to the weather for the Opening Round, Essendon kicks off its 2025 season once again at the home of football, the MCG, against a traditional archrival in Hawthorn.

This marks the Bombers' first genuine test, offering a glimpse into their aspirations for the year and setting the tone for what lies ahead.

While the preseason provided two opportunities to brush off the cobwebs, this is where the real scrutiny begins. It’s the first true measure of how Essendon approaches 2025, as the foundations laid over the past two seasons continue to take shape. The question now is not just whether they have improved, but how much and how quickly.

Early rounds.

This preview will primarily use both teams’ metrics from 2024, along with some data from Hawthorn’s Opening Round match. Early in the season, I’ll be relying on last year’s numbers until enough 2025 data becomes available.

Last time we met.

I’ll touch on the previous matchup, though, in all honesty, I won’t put too much weight on it, after all, it was 23 games ago for Essendon and 26 for Hawthorn.

Many were surprised by how Hawthorn’s 2024 season unfolded, especially after their slow start in the wins column. However, there were early signs in the Round One clash that hinted at what was to come.

The record books will show a 24-point Essendon victory, but a deeper look at key performance indicators suggests a different story, one where, without knowing the final score, you’d be forgiven for thinking the Hawks came out on top.

Hawthorn edged Essendon in scoring shots (28-26) and inside 50s (57-51), while also winning contested possessions by six. Their advantage was largely built at ground level, an area I’ll delve into later. Their +13 advantage in ground ball gets was Essendon’s biggest differential loss across the first 12 games of 2024.

I’ll dive deeper into both teams’ scoring profiles later, but in this matchup, clearance efficiency was a key factor in Essendon’s favour, while Hawthorn struggled to capitalise on turnovers.

The Bombers converted 27.5% of clearances into scoring shots, a rate that would have ranked third across the season, just behind Port Adelaide and Sydney. More importantly, they made those chances count, turning 11 clearance-generated shots into 10 goals and a behind.

On the other hand, Hawthorn converted just under 33% of their intercepts into shots at goal, the highest rate Essendon conceded all season and nearly 11% higher than Sydney, the league’s top-ranked side in this area for 2024. However, despite the sheer volume, their inefficiency hurt, finishing with eight goals and 13 behinds.

That was a long time ago, though. Let’s shift the focus to what matters now—recent form and updated data.

Around the ground.

Winning clearances leads to winning territory, it’s a simple equation. But can Essendon improve outside of the centre bounce? In 2024, the Bombers finished the regular season ranked 3rd for centre clearances but just 17th for stoppages around the ground. By contrast, Hawthorn was midrange in both areas.

Given that, on average, there were three times as many stoppages around the ground as centre bounces last season, it’s clear why Essendon must improve their setup beyond the 6-6-6 restriction.

With Hawthorn’s ball movement a weapon, forcing them to start chains further from goal should be a priority—something I’ll touch on later.

Two of Essendon’s biggest improvements in 2024 came in inside 50 entries and intercepting the opposition, with the latter driven largely by a more structured defensive system.

However, one persistent issue has been their ability to win contests pre-clearance, winning the ball inside stoppages before it exits the immediate area. This struggle has largely stemmed from the size and physicality of the midfield compared to the oppositions.

As a team, Essendon finished 13th for differential in this area. The Bombers’ highest-ranked player in this metric last season was Setterfield, who ranked 17th. However, he only played four games. Parish was the next best at 55th.

This weakness presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the Bombers this week.

Who can step up?

In 2024, Hawthorn had three midfielders ranked inside the top 40 for winning contested possessions pre-clearance, with Newcombe ranked 16th, Worpel 18th, and Nash 35th. Brisbane, Carlton, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, and the Western Bulldogs also had three players each in this category.

With Worpel now missing, can an Essendon midfielder step up, win first possession, and feed teammates on the outside? Is Tsatas the answer, at least for this week? Does Setterfield get a call-up for assistance?

Scoring from stoppage was a key factor in last year's game, and as you'll read later on, Sydney used it efficiently in the Opening Round.

Post-clearance.

Essendon’s strength last year was in post-clearance contested possession, finishing 7th in differential. St. Kilda was the only non-finalist ranked higher. Winning the ball after the initial clearance, whether won or lost, is crucial for the Bombers.

This ability is often secured through work rate, getting teammates over to outnumber the opposition, or having a structure with numbers already in place. This is the main reason for the uptick in intercept numbers, with the Bombers intercepting at the 6th best rate (every 5.07 opposition possessions). In comparison, the Hawks were at the 8th best rate.

The importance of intercepting Hawthorn is evident: in last week's game between Sydney and Hawthorn, up until halftime, Sydney only intercepted Hawthorn 25 times (the AFL average in 2024 was 66 a game). That rate of every 7.16 Hawthorn possessions played an enormous part in the Swans being down by 20 points at the break, with Hawthorn having 89 possessions in their front half while Sydney could only manage 50 in theirs. After halftime, when the rain came, it forced the intercept game on them, and from that point, it changed the game.

Although Essendon finished 7th for post-clearance contested possessions in 2024,

Hawthorn was number one over the course of the year. To add to that, they were clearly number one in their ability to win it at ground level.

This is not only going to ask a lot of the Essendon midfield this week but also their teammates ahead of the field and behind.

Essendon's groundball game needs improvement compared to last season. The addition of Tsatas to the midfield mix, along with another year of experience for Caldwell, could make a difference. With assistance from Draper, Bryan, and at times Durham, as well as potential inclusions like Setterfield or Hobbs, this combination might help Essendon hold their own against last year's 3rd-ranked team in hardball gets (a possession gained under direct physical pressure).

The key figures in this area of the game for Hawthorn were Nash, Newcombe, and their highest-rated player, Worpel. Fortunately for Essendon, Worpel won’t be in the lineup this week, but they’ll still have to contend with ruckman Meek, whose influence in all facets of ruck work cannot be overlooked.

Certainly not Meek.

Among all players who featured in at least six games in 2024, Meek attended the fourth-most ruck contests per time on ground. Within the top 25 rucks in this category, he also ranked fourth for hitouts to advantage, a crucial factor in Hawthorn’s ability to generate scoring opportunities. In fact, when looking at the same group, only Gold Coast’s Witts initiated more scoring chains.

For those questioning whether Scott should persist with a two-ruck setup, this week may offer little room for debate. Neutralising Meek’s impact will be a key factor in setting the tone for the win.

Defending the G’

After losing their first four games at the MCG in 2024, Hawthorn was not only able to win their last six at the venue, but they were also able to punish their opponents on the open spaces.

In those six victories, they scored 99 or more points in five of them, with an average score of 113 and an average winning margin of 52.5 points. The expanses of the ground allowed their ball movement game to thrive to its maximum potential.

Many Essendon fans might be surprised to learn that the Bombers had the 4th best rate of disposals per turnover last season. This was largely due to their safe kick/mark method of ball movement, backed up with Essendon ranking 18th for metres gained per disposal.

On the other hand, Hawthorn had the 2nd best rate of disposals per turnover and were 9th for metres gained per disposal, consistently challenging their opponents' zone positioning and player matchups throughout the game.

Once again, winning clearances and securing territory is a strong start. Applying pressure from all angles should be non-negotiable in all games, and it will be crucial in halting what Hawthorn can do when they get the ball in their hands behind centre.

The switch kick in change of direction that Scrimshaw and Sicily are capable of can really hurt in getting their teammates into space, creating either run and carry or space for their forwards to work in.

The Essendon wingers need to be switched on, especially in their positioning. Five metres leeway can be too much, and allowing their matchups to get out the back has significant negative consequences.

Hawthorn likes to "widen" the ground by keeping both of their wings wide, allowing more room to manoeuvre in the corridor. They won't hesitate to "bite off" kicks to teammates in this space.

The Essendon midfielders need to be on patrol. As the Hawthorn half-forwards come up the ground, the Essendon half-forwards need to roll up from the opposite end, saturating the corridor with numbers and making the defensive zone more challenging to penetrate.

One of the goals is to force the Hawthorn distributors by foot to play in straight lines and go "down the line." The Hawthorn lineup isn't particularly tall, with Chol as the mainstay in the front half and potentially Gunston being brought in this week. Outside those targets, it becomes the ruckman Meek as a bridge between the back and front half.

Once the wet weather conditions settled in during the second half of last week's game against Sydney, the precision kicking game from Hawthorn and the risks involved led them to play safer and in straight lines. This forced Sicily to go forward as another aerial option. While this is a good sign if it happens, their method of attack then relies on run and leg speed, with Amon, Impey, and Weddle all licensed to attack.

First impressions.

Essendon's practice match against Geelong, particularly the second half, provided the first real glimpse of what a more balanced forward line can produce, both in defence and then attack from that defence.

Five second-half goals from Kako and Gresham highlighted the impact a two-three forward combination can have. The added presence of Merrett, who spent extended minutes forward, helped apply ground-level pressure, benefiting his two teammates.

It's not just on the Essendon smalls to apply heat; all forwards need to be alert defensively, closing down their opponents' time and space to force rushed disposals and disrupt Hawthorn's "runners" ability to link up with multiple possessions in chains. Equally important, Essendon forwards must make them accountable by getting into dangerous positions inside  50, forcing them to focus more on defending rather than attacking.

Attacking the G’

After two “warm-up” games, the Bombers appear to have "straightened" themselves up both by foot and hand, importantly taking the metres in front of them more often and at speed compared to the sideways and slower ball movement of recent times. It will be interesting to see if this approach continues early in the season and then throughout the year.

While this may open up the ground ahead of them more and potentially make the defensive half more vulnerable to attack, the biggest benefit of ramping up the ball movement should come from the most important score source in modern football.

The turnover game.

Making stoppage clearances count on the scoreboard should always be a key focus. In

2024, 40.86% of Essendon’s total score came from stoppages, the third highest percentage in the league, behind only West Coast and Melbourne. However, just as important will be their ability to capitalise on the pressure they apply, particularly in the midfield.

If there was one area where Essendon deserved more reward last season, it was converting their hard work in winning the ball back into scoreboard impact. The Bombers finished the regular season 14th in turning an intercept into a shot at goal, with a conversion rate of just 17.76%. well below the AFL average of 19.14%.

Notably, six of the top seven teams in this category were finalists, highlighting how crucial this aspect of the game is to success.

If you’ve read my 2025 season preview, you’ll already know my thoughts on what could make the biggest difference to conversion: having players both at the contest and ahead of the ball who can genuinely punish the opposition. We saw glimpses of this in the practice match, with Martin and Durham providing the perfect examples in the first quarter.

This challenge has been set early for Essendon, as Hawthorn had the second-best rate in preventing an intercept from turning into a shot at goal (17.62%). Consequently, they conceded the second-fewest points to their opponents from intercepts.

Defending turnovers.

In 2024, only Sydney, the Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane converted intercepts into shots at goal at a better rate than Hawthorn. Judging by their conversion rate in the first game against Sydney, this is likely to once again be a strength for them.

While the Essendon ball movement game seems to have been revitalised in the offseason, there are still moments when it’s crucial to play it safe with ball in hand. This approach allows the back half of the ground to maintain its structure and keep the layers of defence needed to better defend turnovers.

I've noted from the two "warm-up" games that the Essendon forwards are positioning themselves closer to goal to create more space between the centre line and forward 50. However, there are occasions when the tall targets need to present up the ground as a "beacon" to their defensive teammates as a bail out option to assist the defenders in getting organised behind the ball.

Ball and chain.

Last year, it was Guelfi who sacrificed his game for the benefit of the team. But is there a player who can put the clamps on Sicily’s impact if he plays down back this week?

Sicily's influence is evident, with 20 possessions in the game against Sydney, eight of which came from intercepts, and two of those starting scoring chains. Is this within Perkins' abilities to aid his teammates? I certainly think it is.

Perkins has the acceleration and speed to make Sicily accountable defensively in open space, especially if the ball is at ground level. If Hawthorn’s transition relies on kicking, preventing easy uncontested marks should be on Perkins' whiteboard. Rushing Sicily, giving him no time or space, and forcing him to use his hands instead would be a better defensive option for Essendon.

Short sharp notes.

- In 2024, Hawthorn allowed just over 26 points per game from possession chains starting in their defensive half, making them the number one ranked team in this metric.

- Essendon had the 4th most inside 50s in 2024 (+5.4 differential versus their opponents), while Hawthorn had the 7th most (+6.4 differential). Only Essendon and Gold Coast were inside the top nine in this measurement that did not make finals.

- Essendon turned a forward 50 entry into a mark at the 12th best rate (21.9%), while Hawthorn achieved the 6th best rate (23.8%).

- The Bombers had a rate of 24.4% in converting a forward entry into a shot at goal, which was below the AFL average. Only GWS had a worse rate among the finalists, with Hawthorn having the 5th best rate at 26.8%.

- Surprisingly to some, Hawthorn averaged the most shots at goal from a mark compared to general play.

- Hawthorn averaged the 6th fewest possession chains per game last season (how many times a team starts with the football), the least among all finalists.

- Essendon games had the 3rd fewest stoppages per game (excluding centre bounces).

- Hawthorn had the 6th worst rate of defending a clearance from becoming a shot at goal, allowing opponents to convert at 25.28%. In last week’s game, Sydney converted 36.36% of their clearance wins, which would have been the worst rate by almost 5% in 2024.

After all that.

This is more than a season opener, it’s a statement of intent. After too long an offseason again, the motivation to show the hard work that has been undertaken for months finally comes.

Regardless of the final result, another seed will be planted here—one that will shape the narrative of Essendon’s season, prove that the lessons of last year have been learned, and show that this team is ready to take the next step. The Bombers’ identity in 2025 begins now.

Go Bombers !