Bombers vs Kangaroos Preview

Time to get back on the horse.

Despite some encouraging moments during Essendon’s Anzac Day clash against Collingwood, the Bombers’ three-game winning run came to an end. But another valuable learning came out of it, a clearer picture of what a consistent quarter-to-quarter performance looks like, and how far this list is from genuinely competing with the top teams. This week, they get another chance to show things are heading in the right direction by putting those lessons into practice against North Melbourne.

Last time.

Up until halftime of Round 10, 2024, North Melbourne’s strength was clearly in the midfield. They dominated pre-clearance, winning the hardball, particularly from the centre square, and converted that into territory. This immediately put pressure on Essendon’s defenders, who had to work hard to win the ball back post-clearance and then team up with the midfield to generate transition.

It wasn’t until the third quarter that Essendon really clicked into gear, punishing North Melbourne from their intercepts. They converted five of their eight goals in that quarter from this source, which ultimately allowed them to take control and seal the game in that 20-minute period.

But heading into this week’s match, Essendon will need to be switched on from the first bounce. Like in the last matchup, North Melbourne’s strength once again lies at the source, and Essendon’s recent form in this area hasn’t been consistent.

Now this time.

North Melbourne’s primary scoring weapon this season has been from stoppages. Despite sitting 10th in the competition for total clearances (-0.4 differential), they convert 23.2% of their wins into shots at goal, a strike rate the Bombers must keep under control, especially given Essendon is conceding shots from stoppages at 23.4% over the first six rounds.

Only the Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast average more points from clearances than North Melbourne, who generate 41.2 points a game from stoppages, 48% of their total score.

Their clearance work is done by committee, six players average four or more clearances per game, led by Xerri in the ruck, with Davies-Uniacke, Parker and Powell regularly working at his feet. By comparison, Essendon has five players that average four or more, with Tsatas first and Caldwell third on the list.

The Bombers will be wanting to get back to their early-season clearance form after a disappointing result last week. Up until Anzac Day, Essendon had a +34 differential in total clearances, but they lowered their colours to Collingwood, losing the count by 14. This took a toll on their ability to continually make up the territory lost through ball movement and avoid turnovers in dangerous areas.

Should North Melbourne control stoppages, Essendon’s ability to force turnovers becomes critical. North’s preferred method with ball in hand is to possess, deny, and pick their way through with uncontested marks rather than embracing contested chaos.

Not again.

In their first four games, the Kangaroos averaged 90.2 uncontested marks, a number that would currently rank second in the AFL behind Brisbane. However, their last three opponents have succeeded in restricting this, holding North to just 53.6 uncontested marks a game. This is Essendon’s second challenge for the day: the clearance battle, and denying North uncontested ball around the ground.

I want to thank you for taking the time to read my previews and reviews throughout this season. However, I completely understand if you're feeling tired of my ongoing focus on Essendon and uncontested marks. Unfortunately, that focus isn’t going to change, at least not until I’m convinced there’s meaningful action being taken on the field.

After six rounds, Essendon is conceding the third most uncontested marks per game (only Richmond and West Coast allow more). Worse still, no side allows fewer disposals between uncontested marks, meaning teams are finding uncontested options too frequently once in possession.

Opponents are taking 95.1 uncontested marks per game against Essendon, over 52 of those occurring in first halves, and it’s no coincidence the Bombers have only won one first quarter all season.

There’s a clear blueprint for success: Carlton held North to just 54 uncontested marks in Round 6, including only four in the final quarter, where they outscored the Kangaroos by 34 points.

The main two ways to force the game into “dirty ball” are through pressure in tackling and closing down the space around the opposition—forcing them to kick hurriedly, hopefully to a set defensive structure. The other is to be vigilant with matchups by not allowing a “long leg rope” and denying the short, sharp leads. From there, it’s about the players’ ability to win contests behind the ball, or, at worst, not lose them.

Post clearance improvements.

Winning post-clearance contested possessions shows a team’s ability to win contests once the ball is outside stoppages, whether it’s ahead of the ball for the forwards or, in this case, behind the ball for the defenders.

This year, Essendon is the number one ranked team in this differential, a huge step up from being 7th last year, and it’s a really positive sign for such an important part of the modern game. Of the seven teams ranked directly below, six are currently in the top eight on the ladder. In 2024, five of the six teams ranked ahead of Essendon in this measure all made finals, highlighting just how much of a barometer this is.

After a slow start to the year, partly due to limited experience playing together as a unit, the defenders have started stepping up in contests behind the ball, which is helping to create intercept opportunities.

Over the past four weeks, the defensive group of Reid, Ridley, McKay, McGrath, Prior, Redman, and Roberts has averaged 27.7 post-clearance contest wins, a noticeable improvement from their first two games, where they averaged just 20.5. What they need now is more pressure from the midfield and forwards to ensure the ball isn’t coming down as often or as easily.

Heading into last week’s game against Collingwood, Essendon was the second-easiest team to transition against from one end of the ground to the other, and the third-easiest for those possession chains to result in a score.

They’ll want to tighten this up against a North Melbourne side ranked 13th when it comes to going end to end. If they can intercept the ball closer to goal, there are clear rewards on offer, judging by the Kangaroos’ start to 2025.

Scoring from intercepts.

North Melbourne are currently conceding over 23% of their turnovers into a shot at goal, the fourth-worst rate in the competition. Their inability to defend turnovers has seen opposition sides average just under 60 points per game from this source, the third most in the league. Winning the ball back closer to goal or forcing stoppages in the front half will be key, as North Melbourne also concede the most points from chains starting in their own back half.

Forward 50.

Three talls down back for Essendon means they have options for North Melbourne’s main tall target, Larkey, and whoever is assigned the job will obviously need to stand up. The Kangaroos' spearhead averages the 8th most one-on-one contests in the competition, and of those eight, he averages the 2nd most one-on-one wins (only Hogan wins more of his contests).

Like I wrote earlier, Larkey’s direct matchup will need better assistance coming from ahead of the field, as Essendon currently averages the most one-on-one contests in the back half. Thankfully, the loss rate up to now is the 7th lowest.

As you’ve read up to this point, the Bomber defenders are standing up in contests, but with too much time and space, the opposition has been able to find unmarked forwards too close to goal. Only West Coast’s defense is allowing more marks inside their own back 50 per opposition entry than Essendon. And when you’re conceding 52 entries, that’s now putting a lot of emphasis on being efficient at the other end.

The other forward 50.

Essendon are currently averaging 48 inside 50s per game, the fourth lowest in the competition, with just over 20% of those entries resulting in a marking target to set up a shot at goal.

Supporters were frustrated last year with the team’s struggles to find a marking target, and this year’s rate has taken another step backward.

Across Essendon’s 24 quarters in 2025, they’ve managed to exceed the AFL average of 22% for marks inside 50 per inside 50 on 10 occasions. The consistent theme in those quarters has been aggressive ball movement further up the ground or the willingness to run and carry, putting speed on the game. This approach gives the taller forwards much-needed space to work in, while also creating opportunities for the smaller forwards to use their leg speed effectively in a more open forward line.

Short sharp notes.

While North Melbourne averages 42.1 points from stoppages, Essendon averages 33.8, with a clearance-to-shot-at-goal rate of 24.8%, the 7th best in the competition.

-The Kangaroos haven’t won a first quarter all season, with an average deficit of 18 points compared to their opponents.

-As mentioned earlier, North Melbourne are conceding the 3rd most scores from turnovers, but Essendon aren’t far behind, conceding the 4th most at an average of just over 57 points per game.

-North Melbourne currently sit 18th for time spent in forward half, while Essendon are ranked 13th.

-Despite their struggles, the Kangaroos are the most accurate team in front of goal and rank 2nd for accuracy differential against their opponents so far this season.

Conclusion.

There are clear deficiencies in North Melbourne’s game that I’d like to see Essendon exploit and capitalise on in order to control the game from the early stages.

However, this week won’t be just about exposing North Melbourne’s flaws; I also want to see Essendon address their own weaknesses, particularly against a side that doesn’t have the same level of talent or experience as the teams they’ve faced so far in 2025.

Essendon, like North Melbourne, has had its own issues with inconsistency in game,

which makes this the perfect opportunity for the Bombers to set a benchmark for execution across all four quarters. They can take that knowledge and confidence into the rest of the season, using it to build momentum and develop the consistency needed no matter the opposition.

Go Bombers