Here's my 2024 Team rankings, crafted with a focus on key performance indicators that lead to consistent success.
I prioritise the process over outcome, seeing it as a more reliable guide. While players can't always control game outcomes due to external factors like umpiring or weather conditions, they can influence the process and adapt their tactics.
There's no one-size fits all game style in football, as success depends on maximising the talent assembled and extracting the most from it.
To cover various game styles, I track a wide array of metrics, all aimed at creating more scoring opportunities than the opponent.
This isn't a ladder prediction for this year, it doesn't take into account the fixture and matchups ahead, it's a ranking system based solely on 2023 games.
Lastly, it's purely a fun exercise that I have experimented with over the years.
How accurate it has been in the past I haven't really worried about, maybe from now I will.
Ok, let's start.
Each team receives ratings in two categories: Attack and Defence.
ATTACK:
The process of attack is about starting with the football and being efficient in setting up scoring opportunities.
Those scoring opportunities start with metrics that focuses on initial possessions, it is covered by three areas.
Contested Possession and differential.
Clearances and differential.
Possession chain starting and ending positions.
Scoring opportunity is then assessed with measurements from:
Possessions per inside 50.
Inside 50s and differential for inside 50s
Marks inside 50 per inside 50.
Marks inside 50 differential.
Forward 50 ground ball per inside 50, and finally,
Percentage of possession chains to inside 50.
Finally, efficiency in hitting the scoreboard is measured by:
Shots at goal.
Shots at goal per inside 50, and
Possessions per shot at goal
DEFENCE:
The process of defence is about not allowing your opponents opportunities to hit the scoreboard, plus the added layer of winning the ball back from them.
Preventing opponents from scoring begins with metrics starting once again on gaining possession through:
Contested possessions and differentials, and Clearances and differentials.
Winning back possession from the opposition is assessed through:
Intercept possessions.
Opposition possessions per intercept.
Opposition possessions per tackle.
Opposition disposals per turnover, and
Opposition possession chains to inside 50 percentage
Stopping effective shots at goal involves metrics of
Opposition inside 50s.
Rebound 50 per opposition inside 50.
Opposition marks inside 50 per inside 50.
Opposition disposals per inside 50, and
Opposition shots per inside 50.
In this system, higher total numbers indicate higher ratings, providing a comprehensive evaluation of each team's performance in key areas.
As you can see, Melbourne sits at the top of the table, especially excelling in disrupting the oppositions possession chains, and stopping them from creating chances to get to dangerous spots. Another high ranking area was winning the ball back to set up their own opportunities.
Their downside was obvious to see, maximising their chances, scoring down for marks inside 50 per inside 50 and shots per inside 50.
Adelaide trump their ladder position to sit closely with Brisbane, but with some variations between the two.
Adelaide scoring more rating points once inside 50, surprising really, not that Brisbane were disappointing in that area, more that Adelaide really excelled.
Brisbane balanced the ledger in defence, although a lot of it was off the back of getting their hands to the ball first, gaining the territory, and then not losing it.
The Power matched closely with Brisbane in ball winning capabilities and inside 50, they fell short of the Lions when the ball was inside the defensive zone.
Premiers Collingwood were next, just above Carlton.
The Magpies effectiveness in not allowing the ball to travel as far to their defensive 50 ultimately pipped Carlton's intercept marking asset.
The Blues also underneath their rivals for inside 50 productivity.
Similar to Adelaide, Geelong surpasses their ladder position of 2023, finishing higher than GWS.
A lot of those points because of their aerial advantage of marks inside 50, and intercept marks. This leading to a higher percentage of shots per inside 50 entries.
Despite their status as preliminary finalists, GWS struggles on my metrics with defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in allowing deep opposition chains, leading to increased scoring opportunities for their opponents.
The Bulldogs face the issue of consistently challenging their opponents offensively and defensively.
Their performance falls mid to low table in both aspects.
Sydney probably ends up where I anticipated.
They sit mid table in ball winning situations and then below in the air defensively.
Their efficiency once closer to their goal scored highly.
St. Kilda ending up alongside Richmond and Fremantle surprised me initially.
The Saints struggled with ball winning as well as failing to capitalise on possessions in the front half.
Gold Coast finishes on top of Essendon with more points in winning initial possessions, and slightly more also on the defensive side, though their front half work was notably below.
Essendon and Hawthorn both struggle defensively, particularly in defending against ball movement.
However, the Bombers emerge superior in attack, scoring more points in being able to access areas for conversion opportunities.
Finally North Melbourne and the West Coast Eagles, unfortunately, my measurements don't look kindly on them in this table either.
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