Mid Season Review

Part one done.

Earlier this week I was fortunate to contribute Essendon’s mid-season review to good friend Mateo Szlapek-Sewillo’s One Percenters mid-season report card.

Mateo’s website and weekly podcast continue to provide one of the more thoughtful looks at the game, covering tactics, interviews with people involved across football and the stories shaping each week, all through an unbiased lens.

If you haven’t checked out his work before, I highly recommend giving it a look or a listen in your spare time.

https://www.onepercenters.net.au

Here is my contribution reflecting on Essendon’s season to the midway point, as featured on One Percenters.

Times have been tough.

What a 12 months it has been to be part of the red and black army.

Only once since Round 11 last year have Essendon supporters seen the Bombers fly up, up.

The reality of the rebuild that had been discussed, and for some not announced loudly enough, quickly became impossible to ignore.

Having watched much of Essendon’s summer training, I wasn’t alone in thinking another evolution in ball movement was coming in 2026.

Across Brad Scott’s first two seasons, Essendon largely relied on a kick-mark game style, recording a handball percentage of 41.6% across 2023 and 2024.

By Round 11 last year, before injuries truly began to take hold, that figure had climbed to 44.5% as the Bombers increasingly looked to support the contest with extra numbers and then link up by hand to generate possession chains.

No side in the competition was averaging anywhere near the 145 handball receives Essendon was recording at that point. For context, Sydney currently leads the AFL in this metric with 145.

The problem was that this style often invited pressure at the source, produced very little territory, and made opposition turnover scoring far too easy.

Watching summer training created optimism that another adjustment was coming.

There appeared to be a greater emphasis on territory, quicker ball movement and backing in teammates ahead of the ball, resembling much of what Fremantle has shown this season: kick long to a contest, trust the forwards to either win it in the air or bring it to ground, and be predictable for teammates arriving to support at ground level.

Unfortunately, that is not what unfolded once the season began.

Damn.

Three games in, Essendon was once again overusing handball, with 47.6% of disposals by hand.

The long kick to contest that appeared to be such a focus over summer had vanished almost immediately, leaving the forwards looking up the ground in bewilderment while Essendon gained the fewest metres via kicking in the AFL, and by a significant margin.

Then came the defensive issues.

After three rounds, Essendon was allowing 146 uncontested marks per game, including 123 in transition through the back two-thirds of the ground, numbers that would have been setting off alarm bells.

In Round 4, the Bulldogs had opened a nine-goal lead by half-time, setting up a significant challenge at the main break.

After the restart, Essendon abandoned the handball-heavy approach and returned to a more controlled style.

The Bombers took 48 uncontested marks, working methodically up the ground and, in doing so, defending far more effectively behind the ball.

With confidence regained after returning to a previous version of themselves, Essendon headed to Gather Round and the control method continued.

The Bombers finished +57 in uncontested marks and +99 in uncontested possessions, snapping an equal club-record 17-game losing streak against Melbourne with a 45-point victory.

It was Essendon’s biggest win since Round 11, 2023.

Yet for all the positives, it is not a style I believe will deliver reliable long-term success.

There’s something there.

In my view, Essendon’s two best performances of the season came against Gold Coast and GWS. 

Those two prefer to move the ball through handball and run, creating more chaos. Significantly, they remain the only two games this season where Essendon’s opponents were forced to win more groundball than marks.

Compare that to Brisbane, Collingwood, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide — the AFL’s top four uncontested marking sides — and it is no coincidence those matches produced Essendon’s four heaviest defeats of the season.

The challenge for Essendon throughout 2026 has not simply been finding a game style. It has been finding one that is both competitive now and capable of developing the next generation at the same time.

Unfortunately, the second-youngest and second-least experienced side in the competition was unable to find consistency in most facets of the modern game.

While there were occasional signs of improvement, the fundamentals never improved enough for long enough. Eventually, after a disappointing second consecutive loss to Richmond, the club reached a conclusion many had seen coming.

Brad Scott’s tenure came to an end.

From my perspective, the decision itself was justified.

Many of the defensive metrics I track had trended in the wrong direction over his final 46 games, including opposition transition from defensive 50 to inside 50, opposition scores per inside 50, intercepts per opposition possession and points against from turnovers.

The list goes on.

While most associated with the football club appeared aligned on what would be required to compete with the best sides in the competition long term, turning that vision into high-level performance proved a different challenge altogether.

It was fair for stakeholders to question whether Scott was the coach capable of delivering it.

What remains more debatable is the timing.

With only three games remaining before the mid-season bye, the decision inevitably left those remaining to pick up the pieces scrambling to manage both coaching changes and on-field priorities simultaneously.

Three weeks later, the same decision could have been made with far less disruption.

Best I stay out of this one.

The coaching search itself will dominate discussion throughout the second half of the year.

I could write thousands of words on potential candidates, club politics, media speculation and Essendon’s history of football department appointments, but that discussion misses the bigger point.

Whoever gets the role needs to be the best available coach.

More importantly, they need to be surrounded by the best people possible.

Shooting stars.

For all the disappointment of 2026, the brightest moments have almost exclusively come from the younger brigade.

Sullivan Robey has helped transform Essendon’s stoppage profile.

After four rounds, the Bombers sat at a cumulative clearance differential of -53. Since his introduction, that number has improved to +33. His contested work pre-clearance has also been a significant factor, with Essendon going from -40 to +32 in that area over the same period.

Dyson Sharp immediately translated his under-18 traits to AFL level when given greater midfield responsibility against GWS in Round 9.

Before injury cut his afternoon short, Sharp finished with 17 possessions, 10 contested, seven at pre-clearance, and converted four of his five first possessions into effective clearances in only 40 minutes of football.

Behind the ball, Jacob Farrow and Archie Roberts have shown enough to suggest both can become important pieces of the future. A system that better rewards their vision and kicking skills should allow them to play with greater confidence and aggression.

Further forward, there are also genuine reasons for optimism.

Nate Caddy ranks 15th in the AFL for marks inside 50 and ninth for shots at goal despite Essendon sitting 17th for inside 50s. Archer May is already inside the top 10 forwards for front-half contested marks, while Isaac Kako finished the first half of the season in the AFL’s top 15 for post-clearance inside-50 groundball. 

The talent is there. The challenge now is creating an environment where it can flourish.

While wins would provide a welcome reward after an extremely difficult season, development must remain the primary focus.

The second half of the year should revolve around the players who will determine Essendon’s future and ensuring the game style provides them the best opportunity to show why they were drafted in the first place.

Go Bombers!