This review serves as a companion to my earlier analysis of *The Essendon Forward Line of 2024*
https://thebombersblog.wixsite.com/thebombersblog/post/forward-line where I explored the team’s strategies and execution for 2024.
In this piece, part two of a two part series, the focus shifts to the individuals that form Essendon’s forward line. I'll be examining their strengths, areas that need improvement, and how these factors might influence the team’s overall performance moving forward.
Jones.
One of the Jones’
I’ve chosen to include Jones among Essendon’s forward group, despite significant time spent as a winger and part of the midfield brigade this year. I firmly believe his natural position—and where he is most likely to thrive, is as a forward.
As a winger and part of the midfield mix, he doesn’t have a “360°” game, either with the ball, where he struggles to make the correct decision on who to offload to, or without the ball, where he lacks the ability to quickly anticipate what is likely to happen next around him.
In his 4th season of senior football, finally Jones has a continued run of games not held back by injuries. His previous two seasons have only had five and then 10 appearances respectively, but 21 games all up in 2024, with runs of eight games straight after missing in round two and then finishing the season playing the last 12 games straight. This is a pleasing aspect to see as supporters, and more importantly, confidence for Jones that he can stand up to the rigors of training and games, all helped by a continued run through preseason.
This year saw three of his five highest-rated games of his career, based on AFL Player Ratings: round six against Adelaide, round 20 against St. Kilda, and round three, once again against St. Kilda. His impact in the front half was evident during a three-game period from rounds five to seven, where he recorded 22 score involvements, with 59.4% of his disposals being part of scoring chains. This included 11 shots at goal, five of which came from marks inside the front third. Only inaccuracy denied him greater impact, as he kicked five goals and four behinds from those 11 shots.
As a forward, Jones ranks 4th at Essendon for marks inside 50 per minutes on ground and 67th among all players in the competition who played five games or more. These are some of the attributes that should be harnessed in a forward role. However, team balance, affected by injuries and form, altered the role where Jones looked most natural—and, as I’ll explain later, this may also become an issue in 2025.
To this point in his career, Jones has been the Essendon forward looked to as a connection piece between the back half and the front half, often hitting the wing as an aerial target. In round three, he took seven marks presenting in this way, following up with another four in round five. Come round 11, Jones was suspended for a week, which presented an opportunity for Caddy to be rewarded with senior selection due to his consistent impact at the lower level. From this point on, Jones’ season changed.
With Duursma missing five games from rounds nine to 14, the coaches had a wing role to fill, and I can only imagine that Jones’ name came up as an option to take on this role as an extension of what he does naturally as a leading forward.
Not one of the Jones’
From round 15, Jones moved to the wing as a starting position, and this obviously has major implications for his scoring ability.
After 11 goals from 21 shots in his first 11 games, his last 10 games only produced seven goals from 14 shots. While the team's average inside 50 count only drops slightly from 56.3 in the first 14 games to 54.5 in the last nine, the team's conversion in finding a mark to set up a set shot drops from 9th (above the AFL average) to 16th.
While this isn't entirely due to Jones' move further up the ground, his change as a
connecting piece going forward has multiple flow-on effects. One of these is that the preferred method of going forward has shifted towards “kick-mark” rather than “run and carry, likely due to his midfield abilities, given his size and mobility.
Like all Essendon forwards in recent times, more one-on-one contests in the front half would benefit Jones. However, his current win rate in these contests is just under a quarter, placing him in the bottom half of all key forwards this year. This rate has been consistent with Jones' average throughout his career to date.
Will the real Jones step up.
2025 is the biggest season of Jones' career, and hopefully not a short career at Essendon. Now with 52 games played, he enters the season in the last year of his contract. With Essendon selecting a tall forward, Kayle Gerreyn, with its second selection in the National Draft, Jones certainly finds himself under pressure to perform to earn another contract.
While the second half of the year showed some abilities in being flexible and playing further up the ground, I would sooner see him as a defender than as a winger.
As a forward, you need to dictate where you want to receive the ball, find space or create space, and demand delivery based on the correct decisions made beforehand. This is what Jones can do as a forward, and this should be his primary position.
Team selection will once again be a major topic of discussion early in the season, with the forward line structure being the biggest talking point.
Caddy appears to have been anointed the heir to the key forward position, with Langford expected to be the other certainty up front.
With the more versatile setup likely now that Kako has been brought in and Stringer has departed, questions remain about whether Jones and Wright can demonstrate their true worth and secure more permanent roles in 2025.
Davey Junior.
Glimpses.
In his second season, Davey builds on his 10 games from 2023 with another 10 in 2024. Across those games, he experiences only one loss, against Gold Coast in Round 20, with the Anzac Day draw being the only other game in which he doesn’t celebrate a victory.
Davey’s introduction to senior football in 2023 saw him feature in the first four games, his longest consecutive run of games that season. Fast forward to 2024, and he strings together seven straight appearances from Round 5 to Round 11.
His standout performance of 2024 came against the Western Bulldogs in Round five, his first full game of the season, and was clearly a factor in earning him a recall in the following weeks.
In that game, just under 45% of his possessions were contested, all won at ground level and all from intercepts, with over 55% of his possessions contributing to scoring chains. These numbers are a major indicator of the influence he can have on the team and, importantly, on the scoreboard. In fact, only Langford had a higher rate than Davey’s season average of 45.4% of possessions linked to scores.
In a game plan that made it extremely difficult for small forwards to have any impact close to goal (read my review on the Essendon forward line for a deeper analysis as to why), Davey found himself playing much further up the ground compared to 2023. This was highlighted by a quarter of his disposals per game being inside-50 entries. However, it also meant his impact in vital areas of the front third was diminished, with his ability to win ground balls inside 50 dropping from 2.8 per game last season to 1.6, and his tackling inside that area also taking a big hit.
But only fleeting glimpses.
As someone who played across the wing, midfield, and forward line during his under-18 year, Davey’s versatility has always been a strength. However, with greater freedom and opportunities in 2024, there was an expectation that he would have more consistent impact.
Davey started as a substitute in only two games for the season, Round 2 and Round 21. In the other eight games, he averaged 69.12% time on ground, which was higher than Hobbs, Hind, and Tsatas at Essendon, as well as Francis Evans of Port Adelaide, Fin Macrae of Collingwood, and Ned McHenry of Adelaide, all of whom played similar positions and roles but were able to have a greater impact while on the ground.
Averaging only six disposals per game, Davey ranked in the bottom 7% of all players for disposals per minutes played. Plain and simple, if he wants more time on the ground and a more significant role, he must become more consistently involved in possession chains. This lack of involvement is the primary reason why, after playing seven consecutive games, he was dropped after Round 11 and didn’t return until Round 21.
How much more is there?
Davey faces a pivotal year in 2025. Without a contract for 2026, his position on Essendon’s list is far from guaranteed. The Bombers’ midfield group is stacked, and Davey must outperform a glut of competitors to cement his spot. However, one significant asset in his favour is his speed, a trait that Essendon desperately needs to inject into the side.
A shift in the coaching philosophy could also play to Davey’s strengths. Faster ball movement in transition would allow him to use his pace in open spaces, creating more opportunities for him to break away from his direct matchup and impact the game as an outside midfielder.
The next significant area of improvement for him comes with the support of the players standing beside him, Kako being one of them, with the other two discussed next in this review.
Menzie.
Up and down.
In his second full year of football, Menzie started the season strongly, playing the first five games, but injuries and inconsistent form disrupted the momentum he had built in 2023.
After 21 appearances in 2023, Menzie managed just 14 games last season, hampered by a shoulder injury in Round five that kept him sidelined until Round 12. Upon his return, his form fluctuated, with a lack of confidence in his injured shoulder appearing to be a major factor.
Excluding two games where he started as a substitute and two others where he was subbed off, Menzie averaged just over 74% time on ground, slightly higher than his 2023 average. During this time, he also improved his output, averaging 11.5 disposals per game, an increase from the previous season.
Round 13 against Carlton was his most impactful of the year, where he played large minutes as a winger, pushing back to aid in the defensive half, collecting 20 disposals, a career high, at 90% disposal efficiency, seven intercept possessions (four of those intercept marks), and four score involvements, including two scores started directly from his intercepts. This was a confidence boost for Menzie heading into the second half of the season after the bye, and also for the coaches, as an injury to starting winger Duursma allowed them to experiment with more inexperienced players to improve versatility on the list.
Unfortunately for Menzie, the return of several big names after the mid-season break saw him relegated to the starting substitute role in Round 15, a move that disrupted the momentum he had been building.
While he played four full games straight from rounds 19 to 22, his impact was minimal, with disposal being his biggest issue during that time. With his disposal by foot that hurts him the most.
Down.
Life as a small forward is always a difficult one, especially in the Essendon lineup. When the opportunity arises to impact the scoreboard, particularly from the hard work applied further up the ground, a goal-kicking accuracy of 18.7% is not going to help.
Based on expected accuracy, a measurement that considers the likelihood of a player scoring a goal after accounting for factors such as shot type (set shot, snaps, on the run), location on the field, and pressure at the point of the kick compared against the previous 10 seasons, Menzie only exceeds that expectation in one game, with his three goals from 16 shots being an extremely poor return. If you want to impact scoring in any way, a kicking efficiency of under 44%, the 6th worst in the whole competition for players who played five or more games, isn’t going to help. This contributes significantly to him being Essendon’s lowest-ranked forward for score involvements per minutes on ground. In fact, he was ranked 521st of all 657 players to play in 2024.
Up?…
Entering the final year of his rookie contract, 2025 looms as a make or break season for Menzie. The profile of the modern game has shifted once again, and it’s time for the small forward to shine. But it’s not a role for only one player, maybe not even for two; it’s a role that requires support to be successful.
With the highly touted Kako brought onto the list, now is the time for the setup to change around him, and Menzie has the opportunity to stand beside him.
I've cried out all offseason that the ball needs to be freed up to move forward quicker, and with this comes the need for a group. not just one, but a group that can capitalise on that. A group that includes one or two players who can apply pressure at ground level through leg speed and still have more players beside them that can "cash in" and put the punishment that their teammates provide onto the scoreboard. There’s a position there for Menzie, and he needs to show that he can fill it.
Gresham.
A pass mark.
It was a mixed first season for Gresham in the red and black. There were high expectations that he could make an impact as a small forward close to goal, while also contributing as a high half-forward (starting in the forward line and working his way up the ground to assist at stoppages and in transition). Both areas are ones Essendon has lacked in for far too long. While Gresham didn’t fail in these roles, he struggled for consistency, particularly as the season progressed.
Gresham’s 22-game season, he missed Round 15 against West Coast for personal reasons, was his second consecutive year playing 20 or more games and only the fourth time in his nine-year career.
Bombers fans got an early glimpse of his skill set as a high half-forward in his most impactful game of the year, Round 6 against Adelaide. In that game, he collected 26 disposals (17 of them effective), nine contested possessions (all at ground level), six clearances (all from stoppages around the ground), and seven inside 50 entries, the most for both teams in the game. This performance perfectly illustrated his influence further up the ground, with 16 of his 23 possessions earned outside the front third.
His work inside 50 was also evident in several key metrics. Gresham kicked 19 goals for the season, ranked equal third at Essendon alongside Wright and behind only Langford and Stringer. Among small forwards competition-wide, this placed him 41st. Note worthy, only nine of the 40 players ranked ahead of him averaged more goal assists per game (the last touch in a possession chain leading to a goal) a testament to his ability to set up teammates.
In my review of Essendon’s forward line, I detailed how important shots from general play are in the modern game and how this can improve in future seasons. Gresham ranked 16th among all small forwards in this category, with 29 shots on goal from general play, second only to Stringer at Essendon.
For a team ranked 16th in winning forward 50 ground balls per entry not marked, Gresham’s contested ball-winning ability stood out. He ranked 21st in the league for winning ground balls inside 50. However, he needs support in this area, both in terms of team selection and method, to maximise his impact.
What held him back.
Mirroring Essendon’s form through the year, Gresham’s early-season consistency dropped off as the season wore on.
Before the bye, he averaged 15.46 disposals per game. In the final nine matches, that average fell to 11.77. As Essendon’s slower, kick-mark style took over, Gresham found it harder to be involved further up the ground. Before the bye, he averaged 4.3 inside 50 entries per game (27.5% of his disposals). After the break, this dropped to 1.1 per game, making up less than 10% of his disposals.
During his time at St Kilda, Gresham played in a similar kick-mark system, so like most Essendon players, his improvement hinges on the team’s ability to “free” the ball from this restriction. That said, Gresham must also find ways to get more involved in possession chains higher up the ground. His average of 14 disposals per game this season, the lowest of his career, and just over seven kicks per game, isn’t enough. This season also saw his lowest average territory gained per disposal.
Speed kills.
Turn of foot is what Essendon has lacked in recent times, and here Gresham can play a bigger part alongside some new additions.
In my preview of the Bombers’ new signings for 2024, I wrote about my expectations of Gresham to be able to work up the ground and then back to goal, using both his work rate, earned over many a preseason, as well as his speed in order to lose his direct matchup or force that matchup on multiple occasions to make decisions on whether to follow Gresham up the ground or hold his position as support in defence. With the aid of the coaches, along with Gresham, I expect this question to be asked much more next season.
With Davey Jr., Menzie, and Kako (I could include Guelfi, but as you’ll read later, he presents a different case) all bringing speed to the forward line, Gresham is part of a group that can deliver a much-needed change in Essendon’s front-half dynamic. Combined with improved method and personnel further ahead, these changes will make a significant difference to the team’s scoring efficiency.
Last season, Stringer had 37 shots at goal from general play. Obviously, that amount, and more, will need to be replaced, but it’s not going to come from one player. It will require a group effort, with much of it needing to come from the small contingent to make up the difference. However, this is a positive in a team environment, as it brings versatility and unpredictability regarding who can step up at any given time.
Generating shots from general play comes in many forms, one of which is winning the ball on the ground.
As noted earlier, Gresham ranked 21st in the league for winning ground balls inside the front third. Langford was the only Bomber ranked higher at 18th, with Guelfi in 32nd. These three were the only Essendon players in the top 95 of this metric (among players who played at least five games). By contrast, finalists like GWS and Hawthorn had four players in the top 50, while ninth-placed Collingwood had five.
Let’s give Gresham the best chance to succeed.
Guelfi.
Surprises.
I have to admit, I’ve struggled for some time to pinpoint the position and role within Essendon’s lineup that best suits Guelfi—and, more importantly, benefits the team. However, his round nine performance against GWS might have finally shown where he truly belongs.
-Quote taken from my review of Essendon versus GWS in round nine.
“This year, Guelfi has discovered his purpose: to line up against the opposition's number one asset in the back half, limit their impact, and hold them accountable for their decisions.
This week, he's tasked with the challenge of containing GWS' most influential player with the ball in hand, while also testing his defensive capabilities.
This year, Whitfield has been averaging 30 disposals, with over 66% of them earned uncontested. Out of his 18 kicks, over five are rebounds from the defensive 50, and he gains an average of over 472 metres in territory per game. Here, Guelfi demonstrates the impact of limiting Whitfield's influence on both GWS and Essendon's fortunes.
Guelfi keeps Whitfield to 18 disposals, his lowest since round one of 2023, with only 44% of his disposals earned uncontested and his 273 metres gained, the lowest since that round one game last year.
Whitfield can only aid his fellow defenders with two rebounds this week, and instead of taking over seven uncontested marks in the back half, he is only allowed to contribute one.
Typically, Whitfield faces very little questions about his tackling, with only 1.25 tackles per game this year. However, this week he needs to contribute a lot more with six tackles, the equal second most in his 218-game career. Guelfi not only halts Whitfield's creativity but also punishes him for his lack of respect.
While Guelfi's 10 disposals may not be enormous numbers, the efficiency is.
Five of those disposals are inside 50, with seven won at contests. His three goals from two marks inside 50 reap the rewards of his defensive work and test the fortitude of his opponent to match him up when they don’t have the ball. ”
It wasn’t just head-to-head against Whitfield where Guelfi excelled. In round one, he played as a forward, positioned back shoulder against Sicily, restricting him to only 11 disposals, his lowest for the year and also his lowest Player Rating in 2024. His work rate in defence over the course of the year saw him lead Essendon in average tackles inside 50 with 1.5 per game and rank as the team’s number-one forward for pressure acts.
When assigned a role, Guelfi rose to the challenge while still finding ways to influence the scoreboard. He registered 28 shots at goal for the season, almost evenly split between set shots and general play. His average shots per game ranked fourth behind Stringer, Langford, and Caddy, building on last year’s output of just over a goal per game. His ability to connect with teammates impressive, leading the Bombers in goal assists and contributing to scoring chains with almost 45% of his possessions part of a score.
This influence was most evident in round 10 against North Melbourne, where he recorded six shots at goal and nine score involvements, and round 17 against Collingwood, where 10 of his 15 disposals were part of a scoring chain.
Not surprised.
Unfortunately, there’s a flip side to Guelfi’s 2024, and it’s obvious to everyone, it continues to be the same issue. After managing just 13 games in 2023, he once again only played 13 in 2024.
Over his seven-year career of senior football, he has played 20 games in a season twice, with the next best being 17 in his second year of football.
His injury issues started early in 2024, missing six weeks after Round one and then four weeks from Rounds 20 to 23. The longest continuous run of senior games played in his career is 16, starting early in 2021, with his 11 games played straight in 2024 being the second longest since.
Guelf’s 76% time on ground is even less than Caddy in his first year of football, with no full-time Essendon forward averaging less minutes on field.
Questions.
Here’s a player who really exceeded my expectations of what he can accomplish in the forward half. Can he at least back up his influence on scoring?
With a more open forward line and space to work within, the expectation is that Guelfi can fill some of the void left by Stringer. Unlike the three players I reviewed before him and new recruit Kako, he doesn’t have the sustained speed to beat his matchup by working up and down the ground to take advantage of open space. Instead, his biggest asset is as a “stay-at-home” small forward who uses his burst to get into space as a leading target. If he can work effectively alongside Langford, who should also appreciate the space afforded by Stringer’s absence, he may find himself matched up against a defender whose aerial abilities can be tested closer to goal.
Can he maintain that influence for a longer period?
With my preference for more leg speed in the lineup, as well as a more aggressive approach to ball use, I do have questions about whether Guelfi can consistently stand up fitness-wise to become an automatic selection. If he continues to be unavailable due to injury, there are enough flexible replacements who can use space to become marking options while also hunting the ball at ground level, applying pressure, and tackling.
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